Holiday mode has prevented me from reading as much as I would have liked on Russia's recent military adventure in South Ossetia. An interesting conversation today with a friend rather confirmed my initial impressions, however, and I set these out here with the hope or expectation of someone proving me wrong.
More than a decade ago, NATO undertook military action in Kosovo against Serbia, without UN authorisation. Kosovo was not then an independent state.
Much more recently Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence, which the West promptly recognised, again without much debate (and somewhat in contrast to the Northern States' crushing response to the Confederacy in America, and indeed the more impotent but still testy response of Britain to Rhodesia in the 1960s).
In addition of course the USA with British support invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, the former with some justification but the latter with very little indeed, and such justification as was proffered was proven erroneous (WMD for any Rip Van Winkles who missed it).
With that background, I wonder about the grounds the West found to object to Russia recognising South Osettia's attempted independence. If the Kosovars had the right to self determination then so too should the South Ossetians.
From a military historian's perspective, I find one point illuminating. Russia's attempts to quash Chechenyan independence has met with ferocious resistance, with terrible casualties on both sides, over many years now. Yet the pretty clapped-out looking Russian 58th army suffered apparently few casualties in tricky terrain in South Ossetia. That suggests to me that the locals by and large welcomed the Russian intervention, though they may not welcome a long term presence. And that suggests that the claims for South Ossetian independence may have a strong moral case.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
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2 comments:
Hi PU, like you am a bit behind hand on this as first heard about it on French TV and my French isn't up to too much political debate. But... the take on it my mil has (bearing in mind that she harbours deep hatred for the Russian system and still is very distrustful of it), is that Georgia were foolish to provoke things, and have given Russia the excuse to step in. The Russians are enjoying their moment of holding the moral upperhand and saying they are looking after the Ossetians when the best Ossetia can ever hope for is to be a puppet state without true independence. From what mil says there are long lasting divisions between Ossetia and Georgia which Russia are swift to exploit. On paper I think I'd agree with your initial assessment, but my gut instinct says Putin would like to see a return to the old ways and this is all about bullying Georgia into submission. Unfortunately Georgia have now given them the perfect excuse.
Copy of the book will wing its way to you when I have the bulk of them, if you let me know where you live!
Thanks Jane, I will be back on work email next week so will send you all the details.
Interesting take on the S.Ossetia situation. I agree that the Russians are certainly not acting altruistically, and may be playing a very dangerous game indeed. It is just that the actions of the West over the past decade make it hard for us to claim the moral high ground in this instance. I for one think the Kosovo War in 1999 has a lot to answer for: it gave Blair a taste for foreign military adventures, and we know where that got us.
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